The Anthropic CEO is right. There's no sugar-coating what's about to come.

One of the central premises of my new book is that we’re currently in a state of denial about the impact of AI on the world of human employment. I’ve talked already about Bill Gates' view that we’ll all be working a two-day week, Sam Altman’s claim that 95% of the work done by marketing agencies will be appropriated by machine, and - of course - Elon Musk’s belief that jobs will eventually become something optional we do as a hobby. (A bit like advising the Trump administration, I guess.)

Enter Dario Amodei, the CEO of the AI business Anthropic, which has massive investment from both Amazon and Google. The entrepreneurial physicist has accused governments and businesses of ‘sugar-coating’ what’s around the corner and I couldn’t agree more. He has talked very recently of major redundancy in white-collar professions such as law, consulting, finance and tech. There are a couple of particularly interesting observations of his that really jump out though.

Amodei actually puts a figure on how many jobs will be lost and the timeframe in which it’s likely to happen.

He says that up to half of entry-level, white-collar employment is under threat between 2026 and 2030, which could lead to unemployment rates in the US spiking to somewhere between 10 and 20%. To put these numbers in some context, he’s not ruling out the prospect that maybe twice as many people could be unemployed as, say, during the Covid pandemic or in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis.

This is BIG news, which will be unfolding in the run-up to the next US presidential election, and you’d think that the White House might have something to say about it. But, of course, Trump just blusters about America’s great economic prospects and sounds the horn to signal full steam ahead on the AI express.

And what about the UK? After all, the implications of Amodei’s comments affect most developed economies (as well as those in fast-developing nations which have build large industries around outsourced call-centre and ‘business process’ work).

The Starmer government is equally in absolute denial and a major champion of AI as a motor of growth. The stance from London though is rather more perplexing than the one adopted in Washington. While Trump is chaotic and obviously conflicted over whether he’s a classic protectionist or a champion of the anarcho-capitalism favoured by his crypto-bro backers, Sir Keir Starmer surely represents the solid spirit of old-style social democracy.

The British Prime Minister wants to improve the lives of working people through government investment, observing careful stewardship of the economy and forging strong relationships with trade unions and businesses alike. In many respect, it’s a vision that would have been recognised by his predecessors in the 1960s and 1970s, Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan.

Starmer’s denial of the risks and threats of artificial intelligence will, I predict, cause a him a major headache in the years ahead. Because if Amodei’s suggestions are correct, growth in the economy will not come with an expansion in jobs. In fact, the exact opposite may be the case. If economic expansion does occur, it’s likely to put ever-greater sums in the pockets of large corporations and wealthy business people, while others find themselves without work.

And the economic growth will quickly become self-limiting. That’s because people without work don’t pay taxes. They don’t spend money on clothes, meals out, cars or holidays. What’s more, they look to the government for welfare benefits.

There are big shocks arriving within a very short space of time, according to Amodei.

"We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming," Amodei said. "I don't think this is on people's radar."

We, as the potential victims, have a duty and an obligation to voice our own concerns too.